So this Oscars ceremony I’m the least prepared for. I haven’t seen the majority of the films. So I’m not going to put any “should-wins” in this year and my snubs are going to be based on other Award shows. I’m also going to explain a little bit more of why I’m predicting what than I have in the past.
Animated Feature Film
Prediction – Soul
Snub- the Croods: a New Age
It looks like Pixar is going to win again with Soul and Onward the current front-runners. Soul won the Producer’s Guild Award and the Annie Awards so I think it has the edge here. the Croods: a New Age was nominated at the PGA Awards, the Golden Globes, and the Annie Awards so it’s surprising it didn’t even get nominated here.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Prediction – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen, Peter Baynham, Jena Friedman, Anthony Hines, Lee Kern, Dan Mazer, Erica Rivinoja and Dan Swimer
Snub – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom by Ruben Santiago-Hudson
The writing awards are always the hardest to predict because the Writers Guild Awards are really the only thing to go on and the rest of the Academy often diverges from the writer’s opinions. But Borat won the WGA and there’s no other strong contender. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is the only obvious snub. An August Wilson play adaption that was also a WGA nominee? Seems like that would be a lock for this category.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Prediction – Promising Young Woman by Emerald Fennell
Snub – Palm Springs by Andy Siara
This feels like the one award Promising Young Woman is going to get. The Academy likes to award more experimental work here, rather in the more prestigious categories. Palm Springs was the only script nominated for the WGAs but not the Oscars.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Prediction – Oliva Colman in the Father
Snub – Helena Zengel in News of the World
Youn Yuh-jung won the SAG award for her work as the funny grandma in Minari, but I just don’t see her winning here. Colman has made memorable speeches at past Oscars which has turned her into an Academy favorite so I think she wins here. Zengel is the only SAG nominee not included in the Academy group.
And I know I said I’d try to keep my opinion out of it this year, but Han Ye-ri had a incredibly strong performance in Minari that could have been in either the Lead or Supporting category so I’m surprised she wasn’t even nominated.
Actor in Supporting Role
Prediction – Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah
Snub – Jared Leto in the Little Things
Kaluuya won the SAG here and looks like to have the edge. The other potential snub here is Chadwick Boseman – he was nominated for a SAG for Da 5 Bloods, but this may have been cancelled out by his Best Actor nom.
Again, I’m trying to keep my opinion out of this, Leto was nominated for a SAG award for his work in the Little Things, but in this case I think the snub is correct.
Actress in Leading Role
Prediction – Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Snub – None
Davis won the SAG so she appears to be the favorite.
Actor in a Leading Role
Prediction – Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Snub –Lakeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah
Boseman won the SAG award and awarding him a post-humous Oscar could also serve as an tribute to him.
This isn’t so much a snub, but Lakeith Stanfield is the main character in Judas and the Black Messiah; it’s interesting that he was selected for Best Supporting Actor. Maybe he was submitted that way to have a better chance of winning?
Directing
Prediction – Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
Snub – Aaron Sorkin for the The Trial of the Chicago 7
Zhao won the DGA Award so I think she wins here, but I don’t feel very strongly about it. Sorkin was the only DGA nominee not selected for the Directing Category, but I don’t know who’d you take off the list to bring him in.
Best Picture
Prediction – Nomadland
Snub – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
This is tough. There doesn’t seem to be any one film that has a lot momentum going into Oscar weekend. Nomadland won the DGA and the PGA Award so I can see it taking home the top prize. But the Academy does love movies about movies, so I could see a Mank upset here and in potentially a lot of other categories throughout the night.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom sticks out for being excluded here, especially as it appears to be in strong contention for other major categories.
Wrap-Up
It’s going to be an odd night no matter what. We don’t know what to expect at all, since last year’s ceremony was actually before the lockdown (can you believe that?). I don’t think any movie is going to be the “big winner” and sweep a lot of major categories, but we could be surprised.
I’ll be tweeting during the event at https://twitter.com/TheECDotNet