Right now the Oscars seem completely up in the air. Parasite and 1917 are the front-runners but I could see there being big sentimental swings to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood or the Irishman and one of them coming away with the majority the fold. Joker actually leads in nominations but it’s doubtful to come away with more than Acting Prizes.
Best Picture
Will Win – 1917
Should Win – Parasite
Snubbed – Avengers: Endgame
1917 will likely win this and the majority of other major awards. It’s a fine movie, but Parasite was the best and most engrossing movie of 2019.
Avengers:Endgame is the big snub here. Yes, the Academy doesn’t go in for superhero, sci-fi, or fantasy movies usually; but it did give Lord of the Rings:Return of the King all of the Oscarsone year. It would only be fair to at least give Endgame a nomination for capping off one of the biggest franchises of all time.
Best Director
Will Win – Sam Mendes for 1917
Should Win – Bong Joon-Ho for Parasite
Snubbed – Noah Baumbach for Marriage Story
1917 appearing to be one continuous shot is quite a technical achievement in Directing. But Bong Joon-Ho effectively balanced suspense, black humor, and social commentary in one movie. Most audacious direction of the year.
I’m actually not a huge fan of Marriage Story. But Baumbach definitely directed the most actor-y movie of the year and it seems a bit odd he didn’t get a nomination for it.
Best Actor
Will Win – Joaquin Phoenix for Joker
Should Win – Joaquin Phoenix for Joker
Snubbed – None
Phoenix had the most memorable performance of the year as Arthur Fleck, a man who is so down-trodden by society he turns into the Joker. He’ll win and he should.
Best Actress
Will Win – Renee Zelleweger for Judy
Should Win – Renee Zelleweger for Judy
Snubbed – Lupita N’yongo for Us, Awkwafina for the Farewell
I’m usually not a fan of awarding Oscars to actors for good impressions of real people. But Zelleweger was so believable as Judy Garland, you forget that she doesn’t really look or sound like her and get swept up in her performance.
N’yongo played a quite difficult dual role that required not just emotional, but quite a bit of physical acting.She was ignored because it was a horror movie.
Awkwafina won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy. She carries the entire film in her reactions, and not awarding her at least a nomination is a snub.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win – Joe Pesci for the Irishman
Should Win – Tom Hanks for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Snubbed – None
This isn’t going by the previous awards, but I think the Academy voters are going to award Pesci for coming out of retirement for the Irishman. It’s the sentimental thing to do.
Hanks should win though. Again, not a big fan of impressions, but Hanks so perfectly pulled of Mr. Rogers that you forgot it was Hanks. And his performance captured the spirit of Rogers and the movie, but didn’t overwhelm the rest of the cast.
Best Supporting Actresses
Will Win – Laura Dern for Marriage Story
Should Win – Laura Dern for Marriage Story
Snubbed – Jennifer Lopez for Hustlers
Dern’s performance as both a sympathetic and prickly divorce lawyer, was more layered than supporting characters are usually allowed to be. The other performances may have been likable but they weren’t as interesting.
Lopez is the obvious snub here, her performance in Hustlers was unanimously praised, but I don’t know who you would bump of the nominee list for her.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win – Parasite by Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won
Should Win – Knives Out by Rian Johnson
Snubbed – Us by Jordan Peele
Parasite will likely take this, and I think it will either be the first of many awards it gets throughout the night, or it will be one of the only creative awards it gets.
I’m not actually saying Parasite doesn’t deserve the win here, it was an incredibly well plotted and fleshed-out script. But Knives Out was virtuoso screenwriting, giving us a Murder Mystery with what we think are the expected twists and adding additional turns to it.
Again, Us wasn’t given recognition it deserves. One of the most original and interesting scripts of the year.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win – JoJo Rabbit by Taika Waititi
Should Win – Little Women by Greta Gerwig
Snubbed – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood by Micah Fitzerman-Blue & Noah Harpster
It looks like JoJo Rabbit is the betting favorite here, but that movie just didn’t come all the way together for me, and that’s because of the script and the ending.
There have already been too many adaptions of Little Women, but Gerwig was able to craft a story of 19th century New England teenage girls that feels relevant right now.
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood seems like it was the biggest actual adaption of Adapted Screenplays this year, the writers took a magazine article and made it into an effective movie. But for some reason the Academy overlooked their script.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win – Klaus
Should Win – Missing Link
Snubbed – the Secret Life of Pets 2
Ok, so I haven’t seen the majority of films in this category. Based on previous award show, I’m predicting Klaus gets the upset win.
My kids watched Klaus, but I only caught parts of it. It seemed like charming movie, but my Animated Movie of the year is Missing Link. Such great stop-motion design with such precise detail. And Laika’s comedy and design just speaks to me, they almost feel like an American Aardman Animations studio.
For snubs, the Secret Life of Pets 2 deserved that last spot more than Toy Story 4. Let’s be honest, both Frozen 2 and Toy Story 4 were disappointments. There should not nominations given out just because Disney/Pixar has to get one each year. TSLOP 2 was a much better and more enjoyable sequel than any Disney put out this year.