Roma and Green Book look like the heavy favorites but it doesn’t look like a runaway. The major awards are angling to be spread out across multiple movies this year.
Best Picture
Will Win – Green Book
Should Win – BlacKkKlansman
Snubbed – Crazy Rich Asians
It looks like a close race between Green Book and Roma with Green Book winning the major PGA award and Roma winning the major DGA award. Green Book will win by a hair.
Black Panther and BlackKkKLansman were actually the most interesting and relevant movies of the year.
Crazy Rich Asians deserves recognition, not just for its historic representation of Asian Americans but for being great movie that transcends the romantic comedy genre.
Best Director
Will Win – Alfonso Cuaron for Roma
Should Win – Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman
Snubbed – Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born
It’s crazy that with all of the classic films Lee has made he hasn’t won a Best Director award yet. Roma is an overrated film that we’ll all have forgotten about in a few years, while Lee has made a powerful statement on how far our country still has to go.
Snubbed – We could argue that Ryan Coogler’s direction of Black Panther or Kevin Kwan’s handling of the lush Crazy Rich Asians were greater accomplishments, but Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born is the real snub. Genre films don’t have a chance while Cooper received a Best Director nomination in nearly every other awards show, that it seems odd he didn’t get one here.
Best Actor
Will Win – Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody
Should Win – Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody
Snubbed – Lucas Hedges in Ben is Back
Malek should win; he really captures the essence of Freddie Mercury.
Hedge’s portrayal of an addict trying not to let his family down was heart-breakingly believable.
Best Actress
Will Win – Glenn Close in the Wife
Should Win – Glenn Close in the Wife
Snubbed – Julia Roberts in Ben is Back
These are all fine performances and I don’t have a rooting interest, so I’m fine with Glenn Close winning a “career Oscar”.
Julia Roberts gave her finest performance ever in Ben is Back as a mom trying to help her addict son. It’s the most real performance she’s ever given.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win – Mahershala Ali in Green Book
Should Win – Mahershala Ali in Green Book
Snubbed – Timothee Chalamet in Beautiful Boy
Ali will and should win. Green Book is a true two-hander that wouldn’t work if one actor didn’t deliver.
I haven’t seen Beautiful Boy but Chalameet was nominated for nearly ever other award.
Best Supporting Actresses
Will Win – Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk
Should Win – ?
Snubbed – Emily Blunt in A Quiet Place
This is a tough one to call since Emily Blunt won the SAG award but was not even nominated. Her performance is definitely award-worthy, but in a genre film, which are usually discounted. I haven’t seen If Beale Street Could Talk and wasn’t too impressed with the Favourite or Roma so I can’t say who I think should win.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win – Green Book Written by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly
Should Win – Green Book Written by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly
Snubbed – Ben is Back by Peter Hedges
Green Book looks in good position to win and is the best written of the scripts nominated. However, this is also the category that the Oscar voters aren’t afraid to award weirdness so it’s possible that the Favourite gets the award.
You should see Ben is Back if you haven’t, it’s one of the best written, best acted, and best executed movies of 2018.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win – Can You Ever Forgive Me? Written by Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Based on the book by Lee Israel.
Should Win – BlackKKlansman Written by Charlie Wachtel and David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott and Spike Lee, Based on the book by Ron Stallworth.
Snubbed – Black Panther Written by Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole, Based on the Marvel Comics by Stan Lee and Jack Kirby
Can You Ever Forgive Me? won the WGA award and will likely be shut out of other awards, so the Academy will recognize it here.
BlacKkKlansman took a true story from the 70s and made it relevant for today. Its been criticized for making dramatic changes, but those aren’t to lie, they’re to punctuate the point of the story.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win – Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Should Win – Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Snubbed – Paddington 2
Into the Spider-Verse is such a breath of fresh air in terms of both animated and super-hero films. A solid story not afraid to experiment with style and that breathes a young up- and-coming energy. Far and away the best animated film of the year.
Paddington 2 isn’t actually an animated film, it’s a live-action film with a CGI character. So, it doesn’t get placed in live action film categories or animated film categories. It’s such a well-made and lovely movie, it’s a shame there’s no place to recognize it in the Oscars.