This year the Oscar race looks like it’s coming down to Moonlight or La La Land. Thankfully, there’s much more diversity in this year’s nominees after #OscarSoWhite the past few years.
Best Picture
Will Win – La La Land
Should Win – La La Land
Snubbed – Deadpool, Captain Fantastic
Of the movies nominated for other major awards, Captain Fantastic is my favorite, and was more enjoyable than a few of the Best Picture nominees. Deadpool is my runaway favorite movie of the year. It was never going to be nominated, but that’s a shame as it was a criticial and commercial success.
Best Director
Will Win – Damian Chazelle for La La Land
Should Win – Damian Chazelle for La La Land
Snubbed – Tim Miller for Deadpool
La La Land was the most visually inventive film of 2016. Tim Miller made a classic superhero action film on a shoestring budget.
Best Actor
Will Win – Denzel Washington for Fences
Should Win – Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic
Snubbed – Joel Edgerton for Loving
Denzel is going to win this category. He delivered a great performance, but I wasn’t surprised that he could do that. I was surprised by Mortensen’s more nuanced portrayal of a man torn between his principles and love for his children. Edgerton didn’t blow me away in Loving but it was a fine performance that he received multiple other accolades for.
Best Actress
Will Win – Emma Stone for La La Land
Should Win – Natalie Portman for Jackie
Snubbed – Amy Adams for Arrival and Hailee Steinfeld for Edge of Seventeen
Stone will win for playing an insecure actress, but Portman’s was the most impressive performance of the nominees. Steinfeld’s performance was the most affecting. She perfectly conveyed the feelings of a teenager who struggling to find their place in the world and wasn’t afraid to make her character unlikable. Adams anchored the sometimes difficult Arrival. As the driving force behind one of the prestige films this year, it does feel a bit like a snub.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win – Mahershala Ali for Moonlight
Should Win – Dev Patel for Lion
Snubbed -None
Ali had memorable supporting roles in both Moonlight and Hidden Figures, so if he wins it will be deserved. Dev Patel was the emotional heart of Lion…and also the main character. It’s odd that’s he was submitted for Supporting, maybe because of the stiff competition for Best Actor this year.
Best Supporting Actresses
Will Win – Viola Davis for Fences
Should Win – Viola Davis for Fences
Snubbed – Rooney Mara for Lion
Davis will and should win this category. She acts as Denzel’s equal foil in Fences and also had another solid supporting performance in this year’s Custody. With so much great work over the past few years, this will feel a little bit like an culmination of her career. Mara is playing the usual supportive girlfriend role in Lion. However, what always amazes me about her is that every character she plays is a whole different creation, unrecognizable from her other roles.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win – Damian Chazelle for La La Land
Should Win – Damian Chazelle for La La Land
Snubbed – Jeff Nichols for Loving
I predict that this will be the the start of La La Land’s run. But it is the best of the screenplays nominated. Chazelle made a modern musical that seemed realistic instead of silly or fantastical. In Loving Nichols took an important court decision for civil rights and turned it into a human story.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win – Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney for Moonlight
Should Win – Margot Lee Shetterly for Hidden Figures
Snubbed – Rhett Reese & Paul Wernic for Deadpool
This is where Moonlight will be recognized by the Academy. I found the narrative was too disjointed for my taste. Hidden Figures effectively told the story the civil rights struggles of three women and how they intertwined with the space race. I think it was likely the most difficult source to adapt into a narrative film. Deadpool was an excellent adaption of the comic book character, nailing the violence and the humor of the comics.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win – Zootopia
Should Win – Zootopia
Snubbed – Finding Dory
Zootopia was both an enjoyable narrative for kids and a contemporary race allegory. It was the best animated film to marry the two since Who Framed Roger Rabbit. There was an embarrassment of riches in animated films this year, but to ignore Finding Dory is inexcusable. It was yet another instant classic from Pixar and one of the best films of the year.