This is the first time since I started doing Oscar predictions that there are no clear-cut favorites. A few films have split the major awards leading up to the Oscars. So what follows are my least confident predictions so far.
Best Picture
Will Win – Spotlight
Should Win – Mad Max: Fury Road
Snubbed – Straight Outta Compton
It’s looking like either Spotlight or the Big Short will win the big prize. Spotlight is a classic issues movie, so I’m giving it the edge.
Mad Max is my favorite of the movies nominated and easily the most entertaining. Straight Outta Compton was one of the best music biopics of all time and a timely discussion on race. It should have been nomiated.
Best Director
Will Win – Alejandro Iñárritu for the Revenant
Should Win – George Miller for Mad Max:Fury Road
Snubbed – Matthew Vaughn for Kingsman: the Secret Service
It looks like Inarritu will win this two years in a row. It’s a great piece of directing, it’s just not as audacious as Birdman. Or Fury Road.
Kingsman was the most original movie of the year with it’s own definite style. Matthew Vaughn’s directing blows away most of the nominees in this category.
Best Actor
Will Win – Leonardo DiCaprio for the Revenant
Should Win – Leonardo DiCaprio for the Revenant
Snubbed – Johnny Depp for Black Mass
It looks like Leo will finally get his Oscar. It will be a little bit of a lifetime achievement award, but his performance in the Revenant deserves this. It was a brutal role and he conveyed most of the emotion in his face.
In Black Mass Depp reminded us he can deliver a great performance, not just a great character.
Best Actress
Will Win – Brie Larson for Room
Should Win – Brie Larson for Room
Snubbed – None
Brie Larson is the definite favorite here and the standout performance. There’s nothing wrong with the work of the other nominees, but Larson is the only one defying what was expectations.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win – Sylvester Stallone for Creed
Should Win – ?
Snubbed – Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation and Jacob Tremblay for Room
OK, I never was able to see Creed so I don’t know if Stallone deserves to win this. It seems pre-determined that he will however.
People are raving about Tom Hardy and Mark Rylance. They were good performances but too showy for my taste.
Elba won the SAG Award and wasn’t even nominated for an Oscar? Child actor Jacob Tremblay was also overlooked. Room is basically a two-hander between him and Larson for the first half of the movie and he believably portrayed a kid who goes trough multiple emotions and mental states.
Best Supporting Actresses
Will Win – Alica Vikander for the Danish Girl
Should Win – Rooney Mara for Carol
Snubbed – None
Ok, so I also haven’t seen the Danish Girl. But it looks like Vikander will win here for her performance in this with a boost by her performance in Ex Machina
In truth, Rooney Mara is the protagonist of Carol. Her role and her acting was much more nuanced than Cate Blanchett’s as the title character. She made the movie.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win – Spotlight
Should Win – Spotlight
Snubbed – Mad Max:Fury Road
Spotlight will win here and it deserves to. It took an incredibly uncomfortable subject and delivered it in a way that was palatable to an audience.
Fury Road changed the formula for an action film. That deserves a Best Original Screenplay nomination in my opinion.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win – the Big Short
Should Win – the Big Short
Snubbed – Kingsman: Secret Service
Again, the Big Short will win and it deserves to. Through multiple ways it explained the Housing Crisis of 2008 in ways an average viewer could comprehend. And it gave the audience a narrative through-line and cast of characters they could follow between the explanations.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win – Inside Out
Should Win – Inside Out
Snubbed – the Peanuts Movie
There’s no point denying Inside Out was the best animated film of 2015. Like all Pixar films it was incredibly well plotted, animated, acted, and directed. And like most Pixar movies it was fun for kids while having whole other layers of meanings for their parents.
There could always be a surprise of course. If When Marnie Is There does end up being the last film for Studio Ghibli it would fitting to give it the award. But that film just isn’t as good as other recent Ghibli works.
Of course, that self-indulgent piece of tripe Anomlisa could win for being “fresh and original”. Ugh.
The obvious oversight this category made is excluding the Peanuts Movie. It captured the essence of the original Peanuts TV specials and modernizing it just enough.