It’s that time of year again, time for my annual Oscar Picks! Let me preface this by saying I have yet to see 12 Years a Slave. By all accounts it’s an amazing movie that deserves all the awards, so you can pencil it in for every single “Should Win” category.
Best Picture
Prediction – 12 Years a Slave
Should Win – Gravity
Snubbed – Star Trek Into Darkness
It looks like this year could be dominated by 12 Years a Slave or Gravity. I’m thinking 12 Years a Slave will end up the big winner since it’s more of a prestige picture.
Gravity is the most pure film going experience of the year and it deserves Best Picture if 12 Years a Slave doesn’t win.
I thought that Star Trek Into Darkness was one of the best movies of the year. Even though it had great writing, acting, and directing the Academy looks down on sci-fi so it never had a chance.
Best Director
Prediction – Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
Should Win – Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
Snubbed – Spike Jonze for Her
I think this is likely where Gravity gets it’s one big award. Cuaron definitely deserves it, it was a tour-de-force of directing.
Of all the Best Picture nominees that didn’t get a directing nomination, Her is the most deserving. Spike Jonze’s unique stamp is definitely visible in the movie.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Prediction – Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club
Should Win – Christian Bale in American Hustle
Snubbed – Joaquin Phoenix in Her
All the momentum seems to be with McConaughey, but really the role he plays in Dallas Buyers Club doesn’t seem that different from the role he’s played in many other movies. It’s just more tragic and he lost weight.
Meanwhile, Christian Bale completely disappears into his role as an overweight con-man in American Hustle.
The biggest snub in this category has to be Joaquin Phoenix. He played a guy who fell in love with his computer and somehow was able to treat that seriously and make the audience believe it.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Prediction – Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine
Should Win – Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine or Sandra Bullock in Gravity
Snubbed – None, though in my opinion Julia Roberts is the main character of August:Osage County and should have been nominated here instead of Meryl Streep
This looks like a race between Cate Blanchett and Meryl Streep. I sincerely hope that Blanchett wins. Meryl Streep first off, wasn’t the main character, and secondly, was awful in August:Osage County. It was like she was acting to Outer Space.
Blanchett’s performance is far more interesting. There’s a very interesting vulnerability to her upper-class socialite who’s having a mental breakdown.
None of Gravity would work if we didn’t believe what Sandra Bullock was going through. But we saw it all in her face. It’s really a much better performance than the one she won her Oscar for.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Prediction- Jared Leto in the Dallas Buyers Club
Should Win – Barkhad Abdi in Captain Phillips
Snubbed – Benedict Cumberbatch in August:Osage County
It looks like Leto will win in a somewhat showy role. Make no mistake, he was very good.
Barkhad Abdi should win though. He held his own against Tom Hanks and created a full-rounded villain who was both menacing and sympathetic.
Cumberbatch is very well-known for playing a hyper-intelligent British detective, so the fact that he’s able to pull off a Southern simpleton believably is remarkable.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Prediction – Lupita Nyong’o in 12 Years a Slave
Should Win – Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine or Julia Roberts in August:Osage County
Snubbed – None
I don’t feel strongly about any of the other nominees and I don’t think anyone else does either so I think Lupita Nyong’o will win this easily. And it would seem to be the correct call.
I do think that both Sally Hawkins and Julia Roberts helped ground their respective movies against the showier roles they are acting against. I don’t think Blanchett would have been nearly as effective in Blue Jasmine if Hawkins didn’t balance her out with a quieter sadness. And Streep’s over the top performance would have seemed even more ridiculous without Roberts grounding it with her.
Best Writing – Original Screenplay
Prediction – Her by Spike Jonze
Should Win – Her by Spike Jonze
Snubbed – Mud by Jeff Nichols
I think this is where Her gets it’s one token of recognition from the Academy. It would certainly deserve a win here, it’s the most original of the nominees and very present piece.
Mud is a great tale that really captures growing up. It was criminally overlooked all around this year.
Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay
Prediction – Captain Phillips by Billy Ray
Should Win – The Wolf of Wall Street by Terence Winter
Snubbed – Ender’s Game by Gavin Hood
Ugh. It looks like Captain Phillips will come away with this award, despite being the least interesting adaption. Not that it’s not a good film or script, it just doesn’t seem like there was to much adapting going on, it was more like transcribing.
The Wolf of Wall Street should win. It took one man’s life and made into one epic ride that was always entertaining.
Ender’s Game seemed like an impossible book to adapt to the big screen. But the end movie ended up being a great sci-fi actioner that captured the spirit of the book and made the technology look real.
Best Animated Feature Film
Prediction – Frozen
Should Win – The Wind Rises
Snubbed – Monster’s University
There seems to be a lot of goodwill on Frozen’s side. I think it’s a combination of Disney being able to poke fun at itself and the hope that Disney animation is going through a revival. And after this movie and Wreck-It Ralph back-to-back I think we can say it might be.
But, even though I haven’t even seen it, I think they should give the award to The Wind Rises. If this really is Hayao Miyazaki’s last film they should give it to him as a semi lifetime achievement award.
I don’t know how Pixar’s Monster’s University wasn’t nominated. Well, I guess I know how – it was a kid’s movie that had a too realistic worldview. But it was definitely a better movie than either the Croods or Despicable Me 2.
I suppose Despicable Me 2 was a make-up for missing nominating the 1st film, which was a much fresher movie. I’m not sure what the Croods had going for it other than technical wizardry. I’m trying not to be pessimistic and speculate that the Oscar voters wanted to make sure every major animation studio got their nomination this year. I’m trying.