It is that time of year again, time for Oscar Picks! This could be an interesting year, Argo has won the big prize in every award show it’s been nominated in so far, but doesn’t seem likely to win the Oscar. With Argo out of its way, Lincoln could end up with a lot of the major prizes, but there might be some surprising wins for Beasts of the Southern Wild or Silver Linings Playbook.
Best Picture
Prediction – Lincoln
Should Win – Zero Dark Thirty
Snubbed – Looper, Brave
Argo has been racking up wins in all of the Guild Awards, however it wasn’t nominated in the Best Director, Best Actor, or Best Actress category, so it seems unlikely to win. Lincoln seems like the safest bet here, Spielberg is a respected veteran director and Lincoln is a well-made historical biography. The Academy loves epic period pieces and biographies. Zero Dark Thirty should win however, as it was the most relevant picture of 2012. Looper is the best sci-fi film since District 9 and Brave is one of Pixar’s best films ever. Both of these weren’t nominated because of a bias towards their genres.
Best Director
Prediction – Stephen Spielberg for Lincoln
Should Win – David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook
Snubbed – Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty
Spielberg and Lincoln again seem like the obvious choice here, the other filmmakers nominated are either too new to the American audience or not as well-regarded as Spielberg is. David O. Russell should win for Silver Linings Playbook. It’s the most personal of the films nominated in this category and has the most unique vision. As I said in the last category, Zero Dark Thirty is the most relevant film of 2012; it was also impeccably directed. Bigelow doesn’t just deserve a nomination; she deserves to win this award.
Best Actor in Leading Role
Prediction – Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln
Should Win – Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln
Snubbed – John Hawkes in The Sessions
The Academy loves to give awards to actors portraying real people. This year they would be right, as Day-Lewis is amazing as Lincoln, he completely embodies him. John Hawkes deserved a nomination for his work in the Sessions. He so convincingly played a near-quadriplegic polio sufferer it seemed like his body transformed.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Prediction – Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win – Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty
Snubbed – Zoe Kazan in Ruby Sparks
Jennifer Lawrence took a part that could of a been a cliché and made it into a fully-developed character. But Jessica Chastain’s performance had many more layers. As a CIA agent investigating terrorists, her character had to hide her emotions most of the time. But she let how her character was really feeling peek through. Zoe Kazan was quite impressive in Ruby Sparks as a girl who was an author’s dream come to life. In some scenes she changed personalities and traits on the fly and was always believable.
Best Actor in Supporting Role
Prediction – Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln
Should Win – Robert DeNiro in Silver Linings Playbook
Snubbed – Javier Bardem in Skyfall
Jones will win but he’s playing the same character he always play, just in a different time period. DeNiro should win; he plays an interesting subversion of his violent persona in Silver Linings Playbook. What if that angry guy was just a normal guy, not a gangster or a cop? And he was trying to do right by his family and control it? Javier Bardem portrayed one of the most interesting James Bond villains in years, who also happened to be the only really believable one.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Prediction – Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables
Should Win – Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook
Snubbed – Emily Blunt in Looper
Hathaway will win for Les Miserables. But I think Jacki Weaver deserves this, she plays the most normal character nominated, doesn’t draw attention to herself, and she supports the rest of the cast. I think that’s harder to do that than what the Academy overvalues – singing, getting naked, and over-acting. Emily Blunt was the emotional heart of Looper as a protective mom of a dangerous kid. If here performance didn’t ring true the whole movie wouldn’t have worked.
Best Writing – Original Screenplay
Prediction – Zero Dark Thirty
Should Win – Django Unchained
Snubbed – Looper, Brave
Zero Dark Thirty will win, in part to make up for all the other awards it won’t win. It was a well-written script, but it was based on actual events, so I wouldn’t really consider it “original”. Django Unchained was a completely original tale that came from Quentin Tarantino’s mind. It also had some of the greatest dialogue of the year. Once again, Looper and Brave were excellent scripts that were probably overlooked because of their genres.
Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay
Prediction – Argo
Should Win – Silver Linings Playbook
Snubbed – Skyfall, the Avengers
Argo will win this in a make-up award, like Zero Dark Thirty will win the other Best Writing award. Silver Linings Playbook should win, it tells a romantic story about depression in way we haven’t seen before. The writers of Skyfall and the Avengers took years of source material and created two very cohesive tales that referenced their franchises’ history without being dragged down by it. They kept the spirit of their brands without making them feel too silly or old-fashioned.
Best Animated Feature Film
Prediction – Brave
Should Win – Brave
Snubbed – the Secret World of Arrietty
Pixar owns this category so Brave should win, unless the Academy wants to give to Wreck-It Ralph for restoring some luster to Disney’s name. As I keep repeating, Brave was simply a good movie, not just a good movie for kids, so it deserves to win. The Secret World of Arrietty was a beautiful, poetic movie that would have been nominated if it wasn’t for the unusually strong US releases in 2012.