Hello, it’s time for my sort of annual Oscar predictions! Only the big categories here! It’s hard to tell what kind of night it’s going to be on Sunday, The Artist has a lot of momentum and could sweep the major awards. However, there are a lot of Oscar favorites nominated as well. If the voters are feeling sentimental we may see people like Woody Allen, Martin Scorsese, and Meryl Streep pick up the golden statues.
Best Movie
Prediction – The Artist
Should Win – The Artist
Snubbed- The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
The Artist has won all the major guild awards, so it looks like it has this one sealed up. It deserves a win too, it is quite a movie. It is a silent melodrama, but it has a number of memorable moments and its emotions ring truer than most other films nominated. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo was a complex and taut thriller. It was likely snubbed because it had a few very, very disturbing scenes.
Best Director
Prediction – Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist
Should Win – Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist
Snubbed – David Fincher for The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hazanvicius won the Director’s Guild Award and the director that wins the DGA nearly always wins the Oscar. Hazanavicius took a big risk, making a silent, black-and-white movie in 2011. But it’s a wonderfully crafted movie, and the silent film aspect isn’t a gimmick, it’s legitimately the best way to tell the story.
David Fincher took what was by all accounts a difficult to film book and made it into one of the most suspenseful movies in years.
Actor in a Leading Role
Prediction – Jean Dujardin in The Artist
Should Win – Jean Dujardin in The Artist
Snubbed – Joseph Gordon Levitt in 50/50
Jean Dujardin says only one line in The Artist but the audience can feel what’s going on with his character the entire movie. It’s quite a performance and will deservedly win. Joseph Gordon-Levitt doesn’t always get credit for his acting because he sometimes seems to be an indie film type. But as young man who may be dying of cancer in 50/50 he delivers a powerful performance that grounds that film.
Actress in a Leading Role
Prediction – Viola Davis for The Help
Should Win – Rooney Mara for The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Snubbed – None
Davis will win for The Help, because that movie is a favorite of the voters and they won’t get a chance to give much love elsewhere. Davis is so good that she elevates what could have been a stock character. However, Rooney Mara is incredibly brave in her portrayal of the troubled hacker Lisbeth Salander in The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. She conveys a lot without speaking and faces things that must have been troubling to film.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Prediction – Christopher Plummer for Beginners
Should Win – ?
Snubbed- Andy Serkis for Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Special Mention Patton Oswalt for Young Adult
I haven’t seen many of the films in this category, but it looks like Christopher Plummer will win. The Academy loves to give awards to the elderly with large bodies of work. That also gives Max von Sydow a chance for his supporting role in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.
The fact that Andy Serkis wasn’t nominated is ridiculous. Serkis made us care about Cesar, a CGI ape, through his pitch-perfect performance capture work. Cesar was one of the best characters of the year thanks to Serkis.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Prediction – Octavia Spencer for The Help
Should Win – Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids
Snubbed – Shailene Woodley for The Descendants
Octavia Spencer will win for her role as a sassy black maid in The Help, but that character seemed like the least progressive part of the entire movie. Melissa McCarthy was so good in Bridesmaids I didn’t even realize she was the same actor as the person in Mike & Molly and Gilmore Girls. Shailene Woodley went toe to toe with George Clooney for an entire movie and more importantly gave an honest performance as a teenager.
Best Writing (original Screenplay)
Prediction – Midnight in Paris by Woody Allen
Should Win – The Artist by Michel Hazanavicius
Snubbed – 50/50 by Will Reiser
Midnight in Paris is Allen’s most popular film in quite some time, so I see the award going to him here. I’m not sure how they even wrote the screenplay for The Artist, but they obviously pulled it off nicely. Will Reiser wrote a romantic comedy about getting cancer that was both funny and honest. His script should have been nominated.
Best Writing (adapted screenplay)
Prediction – Moneyball by Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, and Stan Chervin
Should Win – Hugo by John Logan
Snubbed – The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo by Steve Zaillian
I don’t get the love for Moneyball but it exists and Hollywood loves Aaron Sorkin as well. Hugo was based on very unique book and it was turned into a very unique movie. John Logan was able to keep the narrative and characters front and center despite all the possible distractions of automatons, clocks, train stations, and filmmaking. Once again, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo was snubbed. It was really, really good, ok.
Best Animated Feature Film
Prediction – Rango
Should Win – ?
Snubbed – The Adventures of Tin-Tin, Arthur Christmas
So, I haven’t seen any of the animated feature film nominees. Rango being on the list at all seems a bit odd, so I think it will win. Why The Adventures of Tin-Tin and Arthur Christmas weren’t nominated is a mystery. Tin-Tin was somehow a boring pirate adventure story but it had some of most amazing animation ever. Arthur Christmas was a charming little film, which I think will have more staying power than the other films nominated.